HOME History World Cup and FIFA Ranking World Cup 2018 - Deep Dive World Cup 2022 About Us



The Penalty Shootout Corner


A quick intro: What is this all about?


Welcome to the Penalty Shootout Corner. In 2018, The Economist wrote an articled titled "Penalty shoot-outs are basically still crap-shoots". The article presented a data driven insight suggetsing that penalty shootouts pretty much chance events. This site will let you lay rest to this question and make up your own mind based on data. In 10 minutes and a few clicks we expect you to have a data driven conclussion on whether penalty shootouts are chance events or not. Please follow the steps and instructions bellow to participate.

Step 1: Select your ELITE TEAMS


To answer this question, we'll begin with an assumption: if penalty shootouts are in fact a chance event, then we should not be able to see significant differences in performance between elite and non-elite teams would we? If elite teams are performing better on penalty shootouts, wouldn't that mean that penalty shootouts are not chance events, and that the skill, mental clarity and stress management that comes with being elite improves your chances of success? We don't want to bias you on what consititutes an elite team. It's entirely your call. Choose on the menu bellow, between eight and 10 teams that you consider elite. Make sure that the ~8 to 10 teams you choose are what you personally consider the best amongst the list of all teams available. Everything you don't choose will be sent to the NON-ELITE team list.


  Choose your ELITE countries:  
Argentina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Croatia
 Denmark
England
France
Germany
Ghana
Greece
Holland
 Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Portugal
Romania
 Russia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
Uruguay
Yugoslavia

Conversion Rate

Let's begin with conversion rates.

By conversion rates we mean how many penalty kicks does a team convert from the total they take. Again, if penalty shootouts are chance events, the conversion rates of the best team and the worst team should not be statistically significant correct? Would you expect to have a better conversion rate in a flip coin contest against anyone in the world (good or bad at flip coin)? You wouldn't, right?

Take a look at the teams you chose as elites (left hand plot) and the teams on the non elite list (right hand plot).

Do they look different to you? Is there any interesting insight you can learn from this information about the performance of elites vs non elites?

Conversion Rate per Number of Penalty on Shootout

Let's look at the conversion rate of ELITE team's vs NON ELITE TEAMS based on the number of penalties on a penalty shootout.

In a world in which penalty shootouts are driven by chance, we should not be able to see a difference in performance across both groups.

One thing to keep on mind here is that the first penalty kick of a shootout is normally taken by the best player on the team. This is done to maximize conversion potential and keep morale high across the shootout.

Take a look at the performance of your selected teams in the initial penalty kicks. Also, take a look at how the performance evolves as the penalty shootout advances.

Do you think that there is enough evidence to suggest that your elite teams are performing better overall?

How about in the first penalty kick?

In the initial group of penalty kicks? How about the last penalty kicks in the shootout?

What does the data you're observing tell you about the performance of ELITE vs NON ELITE teams?

Conversion Rate pero Goal Zone

Now we come to the goal zone.

The grid you see represents the goal and each of the nine zones that the goal has been divided into for this exercise.

The label you see in each zone represents the conversion rate of penalties shot into that zone by elites (left hand) and non elites (right hand).

What can you learn about the conversion rates?

Would you expect elite teams to have more speed in their shootings (more strength), and this better conversion rates per zone?

What about the center zone where the goal keeper traditionally stands? Are there differences between elite and non elite teams when shooting at the center? What does that tell you about the confidence of the shooter on his own skills?